Whatever Happened to the Grand Vision?
Does anyone remember 2021? The year that Facebook changed its name to Meta and plunged us all into a metaverse frenzy. Mark Zuckerberg shared his grand vision of digital utopia and a world where we could work, play, and live to our heart’s content in immersive virtual worlds. Companies were dumping billions into metaverse development, NFTs were selling for crazy money, and “virtual land” sold for millions.
Four years later, it’s time for a dose of reality. The metaverse didn’t disappear. But it has morphed in ways that few could have anticipated just four years ago. Let’s take stock of what materialized, and what stayed in the realm of science fiction.
What We Got Right
1. Gaming is Still The Killer App
The most successful metaverse applications still exist in gaming. Platforms such as Roblox, Fortnite, and Minecraft have grown to be veritable social ecosystems where individuals are doing far more than just gaming. Virtual concerts have drawn millions of participants, in-game economies flourished, and user-generated content has grown exponentially.
The success of gaming is shown in the numbers; Roblox has more than 300 million monthly active users, many of whom spend hours daily inside these worlds. Epic Games has expanded Fortnite to be an actual gaming metaverse with persistence and cross-platform identity that has rewritten the possibilities for virtual worlds.
2. Enterprise and Training Applications are Growing
While there has been a lot of consumer metaverse adoption, businesses have actively adopted in a few applications:
Virtual training: Medical users use VR simulations for surgical training, where research indicates a performance gain of up to 40% over traditional training.
Digital twins: Manufacturing users generate virtual replicas of their facilities to optimize operations and improve safety training.
Remote collaboration: The latest remote spaces and virtual meeting apps have developed to more than just a novelty to applications to support engineering, design and education.
Microsoft’s enterprise metaverse offerings have landed well in industries where the visualization of complex systems provides ROI.
3. AR has Surpassed VR in Adoption.
One of the surprises in 2024 was the fact that augmented reality (not fully immersive VR) had wider adoption. The introduction of the AR glasses in late 2024, that were finally useful, comfortable, and affordable allowed for an interesting combination of digital information, with our physical world without alienation of VR Altogether, most typical AR applications (i.e., navigation, overlaying information, seamless translation, etc) were far more useful than fully virtual environments ever were, because they added a useful level of digital information without changing the thought or experience of people in the moment.
What we got wrong
1. The all-encompassing Metaverse has not occurred.
While there are still a small number of advocates for a single metaverse, a metaverse where you can move digital assets freely between platforms, the vision of a uniform universe is far from where we are today. We now have private islands of virtual experiences (i.e., Decentraland, Roblox, Essentially, Meta’s Horizon Worlds) with limited interoperability capabilities. The inability to agree on protocols, with the business competition prevented the seamless digital universe that many proposed.
While the Meta Horizon Worlds was one of largest investments ever in this field, the company was unable to sustain any long-term meaningful users. since, in 2023, the company finally decided to put their efforts into more pragmatic, tactical applications instead of a comprehensive digital world.
2. Virtual Real Estate Bubbles Burst
Do you remember when businesses and individuals were spending millions of dollars on digital land? That market is now down more than 85% from its high. While some metaverse ‘real estate’ in video games still retains its value because it has utility and traffic, overall, speculative metaverse real estate was just a big bubble.
The entire premise—scarcity in an infinitely expand-able digital world—simply couldn’t pass the economic sniff test.
3. Our Digital and Physical Lives Still Lives Separately
The assumption that our digital avatars would become a central component of our own identity, and that we would spend hours each day in virtual worlds, did not become widespread for most people. The dominantly physical world, with real sensory experiences and social interactions, still represents the most critical aspects of our lives.
Successful metaverse applications have emerged that enhance and supplement reality in certain contexts instead of replacing it.
What To Expect Next
The metaverse continues to grow, with some exciting developments approaching:
True mixed reality experiences: As AR and VR converge, we’re starting to see contained experiences unfolding in more nuanced ways that layer virtual content on top of physical environments–virtual content that users can see, manipulate, and interact with.
AI-powered content creation: AI-powered procedural generation is enabling settling into more dynamic virtual worlds, changing and reacting to unique user interactions for more organic-feeling environments.
Haptic feedback upgrades: Finally, some new tactile technologies are starting to create touch back in VR experiences, so innovative developers no longer have to compensate for this primary frontier in VR innovation.
Decentralized wayfinding: For example, projects actively using blockchain-powered technology are dedicated to creating more user-controlled virtual environments and experiences by giving individuals actual ownership of their digital identities, assets, and experiences.
The Metaverse Mindset Shift
The biggest change has been our definition of the metaverse. We have moved from thinking of the metaverse as something that would replace the physical world to instead accepting that the metaverse is simply an extension of our digital lives – one more tool used for communication, entertainment, education, and commerce.
Companies that are finding traction have shifted from an “if we build it, they will come” mentality to engaging with user needs in specific use cases that offer immersive technology. Meta has shifted its own portfolio as well, moving from offering a completely digital universe and limitless virtual reality to adding immediate and practical augmented reality and use cases of virtual reality in specific practical use cases.
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